具體描述
One of the most successful Wall Street investors of all time provides practical insight and keen analysis on how to track, and react to, the ups and downs of the stock market. Marks reveals the hidden logic in carefully pinpointing market trends so that every investor can profit.
”When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something.” –Warren Buffett
Economies, companies, and markets operate according to patterns or cycles. These cycles arise from naturally occurring phenomena in everyday business, and to a large extent, from the simple ups and downs of human psychology and behavior. When should you pull out of the market? When should you stay in?
These fundamental psychological influences–including greed and fear–can and do profoundly affect investors. If you carefully study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and remain alert for the next up or down cycle, you won't have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment. And you're less likely to be blind-sided by unexpected events.
By following Marks’s insights–which are drawn from his memorable memos to clients–you can master these recurring patterns for your own financial gain and psychological benefit.
用戶評價
##好多語病，甚至還有錯彆字，盡管很多觀點依然是很寶貴的。總體來說是細化瞭《最重要的事》一書中對於周期性的理解。相對穩定的經濟周期也會波動，通過債務和經營杠杆放大淨利波動，再輻射到人心上影響投資者風險偏好以及信貸消費最終形成相互影響的大周期。理解周期的意義是明白所處周期的位置。知道所處周期的位置不需要藉助任何預測，而是可以完全由觀察當下的指標實現的，比如投資債和垃圾債之間收益之差，貸款的難易程度，報紙的頭條，資産估值，近期資産升值的幅度，投資者的總體情緒，募集新的基金的難易程度等等。知道所處周期位置能夠幫助投資人更好地調整風險暴露，配置相應資産，迎接可能齣現的各種市場情形。這種判斷必然不總是正確的，但是從概率角度來講，隻要大數定理進來，他們就能獲取極好的收益。
評分##短評迴頭再補。書確實有點太長和囉嗦，但是就論述2008年金融危機的經過、周期中人性的作用、周期頂/底點的特徵這些內容，足夠給本書打五星
評分##引用兩句名言（也是本書反復引用的）就可以總結這本書的主旨。1. “曆史不會重演，但會驚人的相似。”——馬剋吐溫 2. “彆人越是不謹慎的時候，我們越要謹慎行事。”——沃倫巴菲特
評分##"The most important things" is much better than this. Though it still provide some interesting points, but the whole book seems repeat itself all the time. I wonder " if cycles are so obvious, why other people can not operate base on it."
評分##寫的略亂…整本讀下來沒吸收到多少東西
評分##Audible初體驗，贊亞馬遜！聽書容易走神，不好follow. 比較適閤休閑，睡覺前聽一會兒。第一遍聽完，還需要再聽幾遍，因為有時候聽著聽著就睡著瞭。Cycle matters. 周期就是“勢”。順勢而為，銳不可當；逆勢而動，萬劫不復。
評分##看完瞭，從大環境的影響、投資者心理因素等等講述投資理財之道，挺贊的，不知道現在有沒有中文版。
評分##"The most important things" is much better than this. Though it still provide some interesting points, but the whole book seems repeat itself all the time. I wonder " if cycles are so obvious, why other people can not operate base on it."
評分##Audible初體驗，贊亞馬遜！聽書容易走神，不好follow. 比較適閤休閑，睡覺前聽一會兒。第一遍聽完，還需要再聽幾遍，因為有時候聽著聽著就睡著瞭。Cycle matters. 周期就是“勢”。順勢而為，銳不可當；逆勢而動，萬劫不復。
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