"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
##終於讀完瞭。精華在於第一部分最後一節和第二部分的三個案例。其實應該反思的是戰爭和債務危機的關係。
評分##這是一本全景紀實書,反映瞭橋水對債務危機的研究。雖然是一傢之言,但是可以拿來跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理論和第二部分的案例教學是精華,Ray保持瞭足夠的中立性。
評分##part1不錯,part2的三個case study, 非常非常好。part 3 估計個個都能寫很長,總結的比較水。
評分##part1不錯,part2的三個case study, 非常非常好。part 3 估計個個都能寫很長,總結的比較水。
評分##曆經兩年多終於讀完,是一本crisis的辭典,工具書。1)危機並不是由單一因素引發,而是有結構性的問題。所以“下一個危機不定是什麼東西引發的”並不在理。及時誘因有一個,但是根本上還是結構性的。2)學習到瞭cycle的back-end logic,在介紹部分 3)管理者manage危機的好與壞很大程度決定危機的破壞性 4) 泡沫破裂往往始於rate raise 5)泡沫破裂不一定有準確原因,隻要購買之力枯竭即會破裂 6) deleveraging初期容易低估downturn的持續性,造成小規模的rally 7)危機的政治後果可能比經濟後果還大,大很多 8)depression裏市場會時常隨著政策動嚮而報復性反彈,因為大傢會exaggerate相對較小的事情
評分##隻有第一章細細看過,後麵第二章和第三章的例子就沒怎麼細看瞭。結閤剛剛看過的《第二次啓濛》還挺有貫通感:總的來說,大概所有的cycles都是因人類自己的短視而導緻的,而人的短視基本上還是因為人類的短命(想象一下,如果我能活一韆年,那我對於用未來二十年的痛苦來換取未來兩百年的幸福會怎麼想)。在這個基礎上,所有的機製都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一種無奈的囚徒睏境下,個人隻能看自己這短暫的一生恰好是在一個cycle的上升繁榮期還是下降衰退期,而能夠靠自己能力改變的真的不多。
評分##神作。洞見。
評分##隻有第一章細細看過,後麵第二章和第三章的例子就沒怎麼細看瞭。結閤剛剛看過的《第二次啓濛》還挺有貫通感:總的來說,大概所有的cycles都是因人類自己的短視而導緻的,而人的短視基本上還是因為人類的短命(想象一下,如果我能活一韆年,那我對於用未來二十年的痛苦來換取未來兩百年的幸福會怎麼想)。在這個基礎上,所有的機製都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一種無奈的囚徒睏境下,個人隻能看自己這短暫的一生恰好是在一個cycle的上升繁榮期還是下降衰退期,而能夠靠自己能力改變的真的不多。
評分通過對曆史上債務危機的研究,Ray Dalio和橋水分享瞭理解債務危機運行的模闆。書中將債務危機分為兩大類:通縮型債務危機(本幣計價債務)和通脹型債務危機(外幣計價債務,不容易化解),而減債/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提過很多次,分彆是緊縮、債務違約/重組、QE和印鈔票、財富轉移再分配(這一條是新增加的),如果政策製定者能夠快速反應並運用好手中工具,能夠實現化解債務危機。其中對魏瑪德國惡性通脹、大蕭條和次貸危機進行瞭非常詳細的解讀,可以感覺齣來Ray對次貸危機後美聯儲和財政部的應對措施極其欣賞。附錄介紹的宏觀審慎政策工具,本質就是指導信貸局部調整,其中一條Changing accounting rules on different assets,這就是20天前人民銀行重啓的“逆周期因子”吧。。
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