Narrative Economics

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Robert J. Shiller
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具体描述

From Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a new way to think about how popular stories help drive economic events

In a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? In this groundbreaking book, Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller offers a new way to think about the economy and economic change. Using a rich array of historical examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that affect individual and collective economic behaviorâ€"what he calls "narrative economics"â€"has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events.

Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move marketsâ€"whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like theseâ€"transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social mediaâ€"drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that by laying the foundation for a way of understanding how stories help propel economic events that have had led to war, mass unemployment, and increased inequality.

The stories people tellâ€"about economic confidence or panic, housing booms, the American dream, or Bitcoinâ€"affect economic outcomes. Narrative Economics explains how we can begin to take these stories seriously. The result may be Robert Shiller's most important book to date.

用户评价

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##也许是我对经济学没有足够好的直觉,读这本书的时候感觉章节之间内在联系并不是很强,很多时候作者会跳回很多章之前,说着重复的内容。把叙事和传播学联系在一起这样的视角非常新颖,但是除了大萧条中的frugality narrative之类的少数的几个例子,作者似乎没有足够的论据说明叙事能怎样反过来影响经济。书读到后面也就更像是纯粹的描述而缺少argumentation了。这是我有些失望的一点。3.5/5吧

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##很啰嗦,叙事起的作用和索罗斯说的reflexivity相通,在社会中,人们的主观认识影响客观现实并构成客观现实的一部分,主观和客观相互作用,相互反馈,影响社会。

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##对比特币和区块链的叙述,真是不能再打脸了。伟大时代的荒诞叙事。

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##很啰嗦,叙事起的作用和索罗斯说的reflexivity相通,在社会中,人们的主观认识影响客观现实并构成客观现实的一部分,主观和客观相互作用,相互反馈,影响社会。

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##概念很重要 / 别陷在概念里

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##想法其实挺简单,在传统经济理论中加入行为学因素。是个应景的理论,因为随着科技发展,消息的传播越来越快。一句话概括全书: thought viruses are responsible for many of the changes we observe in economic activities, and it's gonna come again, again and again. 这本书写得不咋的,但充分激发了我学习病理学等自然科学的热情。感觉未来传统学科的第二春也只能来自跨学科交融的突变(mutation)了。以及,得流量者得天下啊。

评分

##很啰嗦,叙事起的作用和索罗斯说的reflexivity相通,在社会中,人们的主观认识影响客观现实并构成客观现实的一部分,主观和客观相互作用,相互反馈,影响社会。

评分

##想法其实挺简单,在传统经济理论中加入行为学因素。是个应景的理论,因为随着科技发展,消息的传播越来越快。一句话概括全书: thought viruses are responsible for many of the changes we observe in economic activities, and it's gonna come again, again and again. 这本书写得不咋的,但充分激发了我学习病理学等自然科学的热情。感觉未来传统学科的第二春也只能来自跨学科交融的突变(mutation)了。以及,得流量者得天下啊。

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从传染病学和心理学的角度去分析narrative对于经济的影响,其中提到的传染病学理论去研究新闻(narrative)在公众里的传播、变异和影响,非常贴切。里面提到的几个perennial narrative(反复出现的narrative)可以理解为几种反复出现不断变异的病毒,每次得到合适的土壤就会卷土重来。这对于券商宏观分析师来说其实是很有用的,希望有一天可以用微博热搜或者微信公众号文章阅读出一个"最受关注的narrative指数"

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