The Fifth Risk

The Fifth Risk pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

Michael Lewis
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具体描述

What are the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works?

"The election happened," remembers Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, then deputy secretary of the Department of Energy. "And then there was radio silence." Across all departments, similar stories were playing out: Trump appointees were few and far between; those that did show up were shockingly uninformed about the functions of their new workplace. Some even threw away the briefing books that had been prepared for them.

Michael Lewis’s brilliant narrative takes us into the engine rooms of a government under attack by its own leaders. In Agriculture the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches is being slashed. The Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly. Over at Energy, where international nuclear risk is managed, it’s not clear there will be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do.

Willful ignorance plays a role in these looming disasters. If your ambition is to maximize short-term gains without regard to the long-term cost, you are better off not knowing those costs. If you want to preserve your personal immunity to the hard problems, it’s better never to really understand those problems. There is upside to ignorance, and downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview.

If there are dangerous fools in this book, there are also heroes, unsung, of course. They are the linchpins of the system―those public servants whose knowledge, dedication, and proactivity keep the machinery running. Michael Lewis finds them, and he asks them what keeps them up at night.

用户评价

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##美国政治角力的本质,往往不是驴象之争,而是逐利和逐梦者之争。作者写到农业部的时候开始陷入了一种固定范式:高效部门被架空、优秀团队被罢黜、有益项目被取缔,Trump与Obama和Bush政权相比有诸多不妥。但是循规蹈矩其实未必稳妥,异于前任未必倒退,我反而觉得Trump团队最大的过错在于表象沟通时的傲慢和冷漠。一切问题都会透过沟通暴露,沟通不当,一切便都是问题。读完全书,最精华的论点在DOE一章最后,守序的邪恶与无知是第五类风险的本源,要比大众视野下的混乱善意可怕的多:牺牲长期利益,而试图通过program management填补短期的漏洞,这才是一个政治体制倒退的深层原因。

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##通过一个个故事介绍了美国能源部、农业部和商务部的职能和运作方式

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有点敷衍。去年Michael Lewis在名利场上写过两篇文章Why the Scariest Nuclear Threat May Be Coming from Inside the White House & Inside Trump's Cruel Campaign Against the U.S.D.A.'s Scientists,这两篇关于能源部和农业部的文章覆盖了本书2/3的内容。

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##可读性很强

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##可读性很强

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##19#09 终于等到了Michael Lewis的新书,但是读起来远没有之前的作品有意思,第三章的最后一个故事我更是在抱娃睡觉的困倦中忍无可忍地索性跳过了。这一方面是题材的问题:本作讲的不是金融圈的光怪陆离,而是(在黑川普的底色下)讲述了美国政治系统的成就、问题和隐忧。另一方面,本作与前作之前的差异也是立场上的:无论是Liar's Poker, The Big Short还是Flash Boys,Lewis都是站在“全球性正确”的立场(中小投资者保护是其中重要的一点)上针砭金融界公认的弊端,嬉笑怒骂畅快淋漓;但本作立场局限于美国国内政治中的一派,是非曲直外人既无共鸣,又难判断。尽管如此,读后确实对美国政府一些部门的具体工作有了更深的认识。

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##Program management.

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##语音书到手,骂川普的,也就这本值得一读。虽然有流水账之嫌,不过,作者呈现的黯淡现实真让理想主义者寒心。嫌内容少的读者有些吹毛求疵,川普去年初就职,作者在一年多时间完成采访撰写,写了三个主要部门的问题,已经很不易了。为叙述风格加一星,显然为了中期选举匆忙完成的。表面上反对川普,实际批判这种造就川普的政治环境和那些无视或无知于政府职能的选民们。即使共和党失去多数地位,风险长期存在,美国的政治气氛和意识形态才是问题症结所在,川普只是开始。

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##结构比较松散 花样黑Trump 故事本身还都是颇值得一读的

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