具体描述
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
用户评价
##重要的是理解约束。
评分##方法论里没有新东西，分析的关键在于找出最关键的影响因素，即书中的fulcrum constraint。案例写得清晰有趣，但做出类似分析，找出有意义的constraint需要反复练习（也不一定能像作者这样成功），本来想打四????，但是对疫情后政策的预判都对了就再加一颗吧。
评分地缘政治与宏观经济趋势。“From the above decade trends, I concluded that treating politics and geopolitics as an externality to markets made no sense.” 嘲讽开启，笑死。第二章长篇分析中国时有点准。后面关于 a Multipolar World 的论断也有意思，反我刻板逻辑。总之，因为别人推荐所以囫囵吞枣扫了一遍自己能看懂的部分，还是觉得力所未能及。“Falsehood flies, but truth comes limping after.”
评分地缘政治与宏观经济趋势。“From the above decade trends, I concluded that treating politics and geopolitics as an externality to markets made no sense.” 嘲讽开启，笑死。第二章长篇分析中国时有点准。后面关于 a Multipolar World 的论断也有意思，反我刻板逻辑。总之，因为别人推荐所以囫囵吞枣扫了一遍自己能看懂的部分，还是觉得力所未能及。“Falsehood flies, but truth comes limping after.”
评分##22-06-07：兰老师推荐。/基于约束而不是偏好的一种分析方法。印象深刻处：2015希腊危机，多极力量分析。
评分##喜欢这种塔勒布类型文风的投资者的书，躬身入局的投资人说话就是比拿着水晶杯的分析师们更真实和勇敢，没有既要又要的追求全面，而是现实性务实的表达了自己对地缘政治的个人认识和理解维度的出发点——约束决定政策偏好，后面的解释和预测也都与初始设定相互自洽，很有启发的一本书
评分##微博看到兰小欢推荐，看到了友邻的翻译版
评分##没有什么新意。
评分##喜欢这种塔勒布类型文风的投资者的书，躬身入局的投资人说话就是比拿着水晶杯的分析师们更真实和勇敢，没有既要又要的追求全面，而是现实性务实的表达了自己对地缘政治的个人认识和理解维度的出发点——约束决定政策偏好，后面的解释和预测也都与初始设定相互自洽，很有启发的一本书
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