具體描述
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
用戶評價
##所以還是選擇跟隨吧
評分##22-06-07：蘭老師推薦。/基於約束而不是偏好的一種分析方法。印象深刻處：2015希臘危機，多極力量分析。
評分##既要分析約束，也要觀察互動，而互動總是充斥誤解和麯解。作者對俄羅斯開戰的分析踢到鐵闆，多半就是觀察互動時失焦瞭。值得多讀幾次。
評分##重要的是理解約束。
評分##重要的是理解約束。
評分##方法論裏沒有新東西，分析的關鍵在於找齣最關鍵的影響因素，即書中的fulcrum constraint。案例寫得清晰有趣，但做齣類似分析，找齣有意義的constraint需要反復練習（也不一定能像作者這樣成功），本來想打四????，但是對疫情後政策的預判都對瞭就再加一顆吧。
評分##沒有什麼新意。
評分##方法論裏沒有新東西，分析的關鍵在於找齣最關鍵的影響因素，即書中的fulcrum constraint。案例寫得清晰有趣，但做齣類似分析，找齣有意義的constraint需要反復練習（也不一定能像作者這樣成功），本來想打四????，但是對疫情後政策的預判都對瞭就再加一顆吧。
評分##挺好的宏觀政經怯魅讀物。Preferences are optional and subject to constraints. Constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences. 理解每個政治傢決策時麵臨的constraints比起找一堆ex官員打聽各種內幕消息要重要的多（英國脫歐 / 希臘留歐 / 中美貿易戰 這種事情和幾個關鍵決策人的主觀傾嚮關係不大，最後還是要算客觀收益）。但當然政治傢也沒有那麼理性，作者在21年預言說俄羅斯不會主動發起戰爭（因為資源齣口主要麵嚮歐洲），今年就被啪啪打臉，靠宏觀賺錢真是太難瞭。
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