具體描述
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
用戶評價
##重要的是理解約束。
評分##"Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences" 用詞比較難讀，各種吹自己過去反market consensus & had made the right call……
評分##庫斯圖裏卡版的塔勒布那種感覺
評分##喜歡這種塔勒布類型文風的投資者的書，躬身入局的投資人說話就是比拿著水晶杯的分析師們更真實和勇敢，沒有既要又要的追求全麵，而是現實性務實的錶達瞭自己對地緣政治的個人認識和理解維度的齣發點——約束決定政策偏好，後麵的解釋和預測也都與初始設定相互自洽，很有啓發的一本書
評分##22-06-07：蘭老師推薦。/基於約束而不是偏好的一種分析方法。印象深刻處：2015希臘危機，多極力量分析。
評分##喜歡這種塔勒布類型文風的投資者的書，躬身入局的投資人說話就是比拿著水晶杯的分析師們更真實和勇敢，沒有既要又要的追求全麵，而是現實性務實的錶達瞭自己對地緣政治的個人認識和理解維度的齣發點——約束決定政策偏好，後麵的解釋和預測也都與初始設定相互自洽，很有啓發的一本書
評分地緣政治與宏觀經濟趨勢。“From the above decade trends, I concluded that treating politics and geopolitics as an externality to markets made no sense.” 嘲諷開啓，笑死。第二章長篇分析中國時有點準。後麵關於 a Multipolar World 的論斷也有意思，反我刻闆邏輯。總之，因為彆人推薦所以囫圇吞棗掃瞭一遍自己能看懂的部分，還是覺得力所未能及。“Falsehood flies, but truth comes limping after.”
評分##所以還是選擇跟隨吧
評分##所以還是選擇跟隨吧
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